NOTE: This is the second post in a two-part examination of split and component stats. Check out our pitching-focused post from yesterday!
JACKSON, TENN. – One of the more fascinating things about the game of baseball is the way certain component numbers deviate from one another when breaking down overall statistics. Some guys are great in day games, while others play better at night. Why is that, and who knows it? There are certainly answers for some of these oddities, but do they all matter? It depends on whom you ask. Let’s take a look at a few of the interesting season splits for the Generals, through 7/8/18:
MILB.COM – SELECT HITTING SPLITS (On-Base Percentage)
|HITTERS||Home/Road||Day/Night||2 Outs||Ahead/Behind in Count||Bases Empty/Men On|
For the record, DL players, players who joined the team in July, and players with fewer than 20 games played at Jackson aren’t on this list.
*Spoiler alert: Rudy Flores can get on base. Good hitters can get on base under almost any conditions, and Flores shows you that by consistently getting high marks across the board in the above categories. There’s a reason why he’s a two-time Southern League All-Star AND why he saw a lot of time in left field last season—J.R. House needed his offensive ability in the lineup.
*You’ll notice also that the Generals tend to have a higher on-base floor, so to speak, in night games than in day games—it’s harder to prepare when you’ve got less time before the game, and that’s always the case with daylight games.
*Check out each guy’s highest split—where is it? For a lot of guys, it’s when they’re ahead in the count. (In this case, 0-0, 1-1, and 3-2 counts are considered “even”; 2-2 is “behind”). Look also at who does well when they’re behind in the count. Jose Vinicio and Jamie Westbrook are freer swingers than their peers—if you’re not afraid to swing, you’re probably inclined to hit better in bad counts, provided you can make contact. (Walks, of course, can’t be drawn in a count where you’re behind.)
*The three guys who have the highest on base percentage with two outs are Daniel Robertson, Alberto Rosario, and Josh Prince. Quick: what do they all have in common? If you’ve been paying attention, you may know that all three have MLB service time. If you’ve been to The Show, you’ve more than likely got both a very high awareness of any situation, and you can execute and/or maintain your plate discipline against strong talent. The Generals are lucky to have a guy like that in each third of their batting order most nights of the week.
FANGRAPHS.COM – SELECT HITTING DATA
*Daniel Robertson is the guy closest to having a walk rate that outpaces his strikeout rate, which is great for a table-setter. He’s also shown surprising power, hitting six homers en route to a .160 isolated power mark. That combination of sneaky power and having a good eye at the plate are part of what got D-Rob to the big leagues in four different seasons. You want to prove people wrong as a 33rd round pick? Be efficient and show some pop.
*Galli Cribbs is still a glove-first shortstop, even after batting .351 in April. But wouldn’t you love to see shades of April Cribbs return? If that’s going to happen, he’ll have to reaffirm his plate discipline. After picking up 11 walks in April, Cribbs walked just 13 times over the next two months, which is partly why his numbers have dipped. If he can’t perform more consistently in bad counts (.173 OBP, his lowest split here by far), the only other option is to avoid them entirely. He’s hitting enough line drives to be a nightly contributor, but a strikeout rate near 30%, absent a lot more power, cannot be ignored going forward.
*If you’re hunting for a wild card, the so-called “x-factor,” it might be Marty Herum. Having just returned from an April injury, Herum played only 30 games through July 9, but his wOBA and wRAA are strong, and that’s important. DON’T LET THESE ABBREVIATIONS SCARE YOU, FAM – I’VE GOT YOU!
Think of wOBA as the highest revision of on-base percentage. The “w” part means “weighted,” i.e. not everything weighs the same—singles and doubles, for example, are weighted differently in this formula, as they should be. The reason wOBA is better than slugging percentage is scale. When you hit a triple in your only at-bat, your batting average is 1.000 and your on-base percentage is 1.000, but your slugging percentage is 3.000. Why? Slugging is scaled differently. With wOBA, every offensive result has a specific pre-determined weight, so the final number encompasses everything you’ve done at the plate and spits out a something you can easily frame in the context of the .300-.400 range decimals you’ve seen forever as a baseball fan.
Now, bear with me—you can stick with wOBA if you’d like to get off this sabermetric express train, or you can ride out to one more stop, wRAA. Baseball is about scoring runs, and wRAA uses wOBA as an input to determine the difference in run production between your player and an average player. We’re not talking about literal runs in the “R” column, but all of the offensive events that contribute fractions of a run, summed up into a nice, friendly, zero-scaled numeral. wRAA answers the question: “How many runs has this guy helped us produce beyond an average player’s contribution?”
Marty Herum’s wRAA, unlike his wOBA, is not among the top 3 hitters on the team. This is in part because wRAA works like a counting stat, in that you can collect more wRAA (and also lose wRAA) as you play more games. With that in mind, it makes a huge difference to divide wRAA by each player’s number of games played. In a per-game context, Marty Herum is the Generals’ third-best run producer, sitting at 0.1 wRAA/G behind Flores (0.18) and Prince (0.14).
Do you remember the Generals going 15-2 in April? How about the 26-32 stretch after that, when Herum was on the disabled list for every game except one (May 10, a loss)? If Jackson is going to turn things around from a sub-.500 record in the Second Half (currently 6-13), they’re going to need a positive impact from Herum, not unlike what they got in the First Half from now-Reno-Ace Juniel Querecuto.